The ins, the outs and the what-have-yous of the campaign

Newsweek runs an exhaustive 7-chapter (!) special on the campaigns. I just finished chapter 2 and it reads like a novel.

Why did Obama win? (some numbers)

66% of voters between 18-29 voted for the Democrat
96% of blacks (!) voted for Obama
67% of Latinos voted for Obama (up by around 10%). An explanation for this can be found here.
52% of people earning more than 200,000 dollars who opted for Obama (these are the people who will carry the burden of Obama's tax increases)
58% of people holding a postgraduate degree voted for Obama
52% of Independents voted chose the Democrat
26% of voters were contacted by the Obama campaign
84% of Clinton Democrats finally went for Obama
17% of Bush 2004 voters went for Obama, 9% of Kerry voters went for McCain
51% of Americans think that government should be doing more (76% of them voted for Obama)
57% believe that Obama is in touch with people like them (the same number for McCain was 39%)

Some more here.

Why did McCain lose?

A collection of analysts ruminate. Your pick:

The political environment could not have been worse: an unpopular incumbent; an unpopular, costly war; and an economic calamity.

The irony is that McCain spent the past four years morphing from what the voters wanted into a diluted Republican. And he also seemed disadvantaged by a disorganized campaign.

When America has felt lost and uncertain about its prospects, as it does today, it has often searched for transformational leaders to steer it into the future -- FDR, JFK, Ronald Reagan. Was it within McCain's power to be that man? No. His campaign created a great narrative, a great story, but it was only about John McCain. He did not create a narrative, as Obama did, about where he would lead us and about where we, as Americans, were going. That, perhaps, was his failing. The bigger question is: Who built the Republican Party that doomed him?

McCain's biggest mistake was not going with his instincts and picking Joe Lieberman as his running mate. This would have allowed McCain to run a campaign based on bipartisanship and results-oriented policies -- what was best for the American people -- and not one geared toward the GOP's right wing.

Saying that "government is the problem" was okay for Reagan's inaugural, but it was politically untenable in today's economy. Exit polls Tuesday showed that, by an eight-percentage-point margin, voters said that government should be doing more rather than less -- an 11-point swing from four years ago.

Had McCain voted against the bailout of Wall Street firms and backed the Republican alternative, there is no question in my mind that he would have won. After calling attention to his "suspension" of his campaign, McCain compliantly and supinely embraced the Bush bailout backed by the Democrats. America was waiting for him to speak out against excessive government spending and against bailing out Wall Street firms for their greed.

Ain't no stoppin' us now

Dizzee Rascal for Prime Minister

Haha, Jeremy Paxman is such a cocky bastard.

Reality check

Obama's team are already trying to lower the expectations created by Tuesday's landslide.

With the Democrats falling short of a filibuster-proof 60-seat majority in the Senate on Tuesday, his agenda will probably require some modicum of horse trading for Republican support. Further complicating the picture, Mr. Obama’s winning coalition includes new voters who will be watching him closely but may not have patience for the deliberative give and take that accomplishment in Washington often demands.

I often tell non-American friends that one point not very well understood about American politics is how weak the Presidency actually is compared to many European governments with large parliamentary majorities. This is a point related to the system of checks and balances at the heart of American politics. The task is made even more complicated by Bush's 8-year legacy on public debt and international law. I hope the effect of the lame duck transitional period will be minimal.

KNOW HOPE

I have been following this campaign for nearly a year now (and quite intensely in the past 2 months) and today I am feeling quite hung over physically, emotionally and intellectually. The all-nighter and the alcohol galore by way of celebrations did not help. I have been trying to find something worth posting for some time now, but somehow nothing captures the moment quite accurately. It is as if opinion pieces, quirky videos, interesting exit polls and vivid photographs were worthless compared to the simple fact that yesterday the American community as a whole overwhelmingly voted for decency, intelligence, tolerance and HOPE.

I am not American by birth. I lived, studied, worked and travelled there for four years and I have quite strong feelings of affection for the country, its ideals and the fundamental decency of its people. Yet I also feel quite European in the sense that I have developed a certain amount of cynicism towards "the American Dream" and its overstretch as the backbone of American life. I could never reconcile these conflicting attitudes, or at least not any more than one can reconcile one's idealism with the complexity of real life.

Last night, however, as the exit polls and vote tallies were coming in, I felt that my personal ambivalence about America evaporated as the reality of a man who personifies the American Dream started sinking in. In his own words: If there is anyone out there who still doubts that America is a place where all things are possible; who still wonders if the dream of our founders is alive in our time; who still questions the power of our democracy, tonight is your answer.

While America's economy is losing its global edge, America's politics are leading the way redefining campaigning, rhetoric and message. In the years to come I look forward to seeing whether bad economics will trump good politics or vice versa. Last night and today, however, I am celebrating America's comeback as the great nation.

America votes

Come on America, you can do it.

My humble prediction:

Obama: 338 - McCain: 200 (I am inclined to add Missouri to Obama's electors, but I have decided to be a little cautious just because some friends are calling me partisan- imagine THAT)

Who is against the Euro now?

The Eurozone might expand soon as national governments come to see the perils of playing a little too much with the currency speculators. Denmark and Hungary are obvious candidates. I would add the UK to the list.

Fact check on the August war

The BBC, battered these days by English newspapers over a rather stupid radio scandal, reminds us why it is still the envy of many a public broadcasting agency.

Last poll-check

Is Obama "too European"?

Matthew Price strikes a half-note about Obama and some American voters:

It boiled down to a sense that he was just a little bit too different. He seemed to have a different outlook, something they weren't quite sure about. Something unfamiliar... For many the fact that Barack Obama is different is intoxicating. For many others it is something that leaves them unsettled... This is about the people who simply feel his policies, and his approach would not be good for this nation. This is why John McCain's focus on "Barack the Redistributor" has hit a chord with many segments of the population here.

One can understand the worries of these people. Obama may look and sound like a Martian to many older or less educated voters. But are these voters the "real America"? Is Obama really the Un-American candidate?

What I see in America is the epitome of modernity in all its aspects - the good (liberty, equality, rational pursuit of happiness) and the bad (corporatism, social dislocation, intense consumerism). Voting for Bush, however, looked like a reversal of this creed - people voted for him because he was folksy, religious and unencumbered by the complexities of modern times - he also descended from a very wealthy family, an aristocrat palling with the average Joe if you wish. In the last eight years Americans recoiled from modernity into a pristine past of us-vs.-them, cowboy-like straight talk. They voted for Bush because they thought they could have a beer with him in his ranch in Texas. Well, I think we know what the results of this retreat were.

Obama, instead, is the American candidate par excellence, because he is self-made, technology-savvy, intensely hardworking, practical and young. Due to these qualities he represents the return of the States to the values of dynamic modernity at the core of the American Dream, at least the way I understand it. But he goes beyond that. He is also intellectually sophisticated, receptive of other people's different opinions and moral codes and he is post-racial. These are qualities necessary to redefine the American Dream domestically because the States need to move beyond the divisive culture wars and the anti-intellectualism of the last decades. These qualities can also redefine the American position abroad because the US can no longer have a claim to unrivalled greatness.

Why you should go vote (?!)

This is tres cool and tres Starbucks. It is also a good example of preaching to the converted - I am referring to those latte-sipping liberals who are usually more educated, more politically savvy and more likely to vote anyways.

On second thought I have decided I really dislike this commercial: it implies that a profit-driven corporation becomes the standard bearer for a "healthy" community. Who cares what Starbucks thinks about voting? Why have we (progressive urbanites) allowed it to create so much cultural and political capital at the expense of non-market forces? Thank God this election is about real issues, competence and grassroots campaigning, rather than fake feel-good messages.

Update: The black guy wins the race

Unbelievable finish! Hopefully the other race will not be determined on the last lap.